I refer, of course, to the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, America’s largest and best opportunity to illegally wager small sums of money on the outcomes of amateur athletic contests. The fun thing about March Madness betting is that you don’t pick a single game, you pick all 63 games (a “bracket”). Since the odds of picking all 63 winners are astronomical (no one has ever done it) and because the points awarded for each victory double with each of the six rounds, your bracket’s fate is often not decided until that last game is played… if your pick for the winner has made it to the final game. That means that the suspense can be sustained over the course of the tournament – three weeks or more. You can have hope of material gain (which, after all, is why we bet) for nearly a month. Lots of hope for a small wager makes March Madness an excellent betting value. Which is why it is so popular.
Of course, if your pick for the winner loses in the first round, you feel like a complete idiot. That is why I always fill out several brackets. I need at least one that gives me hope until the end.
The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee provides assistance in picking winners. In fact, they pretty much tell you who THEY think is going to win by ranking (or “seeding”) the teams. The 64 teams are divided into four groups of 16 each and each of the 16 teams in each group is ranked 1 to 16. This year the four #1 teams are Syracuse, North Carolina, Kentucky and Michigan State. Number 1 teams don’t always win – there are statistics on this somewhere – but they are certainly a good bet to make it to that final game. Since my goal is to buy hope, I have picked Kentucky and Michigan State to win in two of my brackets. I picked North Carolina to make it to the final game in a bracket, but have them losing to Michigan State. I slighted Syracuse because one of their best players is ineligible for the tournament. I favor #2 seeds to win in my other two brackets (because they try harder?): Ohio State and Missouri.
Basketball aside, there are other reasons to deem March to be mad this year. The weather has been crazy (in a good way): it has already hit 70 once and another is predicted for Sunday. And work has been crazy, too. I come home every day thinking “why can’t I retire NOW?”
These last few months of work are going to be difficult. But nice weather – and a big betting win – will help me get through it.
Go Wildcats! And Tigers! And Buckeyes! And Spartans!